A Graph That
1. Bush's approval percentage steadily decreases during his term and rises only in three spikes stimulated by violent events impacting national security: 9-11, the March/April 2003 Iraq invasion and the December 2003 capture of Saddam Hussein. It is no wonder, then, that Bush describes himself as a war President -- he thrives in the public's eyes only when he appears to be defending the country, by beating the patriotic drum.
2. Each approval increase spike is less than the previous one.
3. Disapproval percentages steadily increase during his term and drop only in the three national security spikes.
4. Each disapproval decrease is less than the previous one.
5. In May, 2001, early in Bush's term, there was a highly positive 22% percentage point spread between his approval and disapproval ratings. The graph shows that spread had vanished by March, 2004 to 49% approval and 48% disapproval. When the The Pew Research Center data is examined for early April, 2004, Bush actually goes into the negative -- 43% approve and 47% disapprove.
Comparison With Previous Forecasts
1. The June 15, 2003 Forecast, Future Chronicle - Bush's Downfall Part 2 The Summer And Fall In Disgrace identified four hotspots harming his reputation. These are: July 16 to August 10, August 27 to September 20, October 15 to 30 and November 5 to 9. The graph shows that Bush's popularity did indeed erode during these four hotspots, dropping from 58% to 50%, while his disapproval rating grew from 32% to 42%. Considering these together, Bush lost 8 approval points and gains 10 disapproval points, for a total of 18% loss of reputation.
2. In the January 10, 2004 Forecast, The Planetary Winds Have Shifted, I stated, This Jupiter retrograde (began January 4) rips the petals of good fortune off Bush's blooming yellow Texas rose. This Forecast too has been proven true, as the approval/disapproval percentages changed for the worse from early January's 56/39 to the graph's dead heat of 49/48 at the end of March.
As stated in the March 24, 2004 Forecast, The
Amoral Trio, Bush was
elected under a powerful Saturn with Rahu planetary cycle. Now
under Saturn with Jupiter (optimism
and expansion), his aspirations
have grown, but powerful enemies reveal Bush's lies, and a loss of
personal power bars his usual vengeance against them.
Copyright 1999-2004 Doug Riemer