#47
President Bush Approval/Disapproval
April 5, 2004

A Graph That Reveals
     Below is a graph showing President Bush's approval and disapproval percentages from May 2001 through March 2004.  This graph is from The University of Arizona http://www.u.arizona.edu/~philwarf/, and the data comes from  http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm.
     The graph is displayed to visually demonstrate the long term erosion of public support for Bush, for the media almost always reports on short term swings that mislead simply because they ignore the longer trend.  When I first saw this material, I found it reassuring and calming and hope you will similarly benefit..  The graph also provides opportunities for provocative interpretation, as well as comparison with previous Forecasts, both of which are shown below.

Some Interpretation

     1.  Bush's approval percentage steadily decreases during his term and rises only in three spikes stimulated by violent events impacting national security:  9-11, the March/April 2003 Iraq invasion and the December 2003 capture of Saddam Hussein.  It is no wonder, then, that Bush describes himself as a war President -- he thrives in the public's eyes only when he appears to be defending the country, by beating the patriotic drum.

     2.  Each approval increase spike is less than the previous one.

     3.  Disapproval percentages steadily increase during his term and drop only in the three national security spikes.

     4.  Each disapproval decrease is less than the previous one.

     5.  In May, 2001, early in Bush's term, there was a highly positive 22%  percentage point spread between his approval and disapproval ratings.  The graph shows that spread had vanished by March, 2004 to 49% approval and 48% disapproval.  When the The Pew Research Center data is examined for early April, 2004, Bush actually goes into the negative -- 43% approve and 47% disapprove.

Comparison With Previous Forecasts

     1.  The June 15, 2003 Forecast, Future Chronicle - Bush's Downfall Part 2 The Summer And Fall In Disgrace identified four hotspots harming his reputation.  These are:  July 16 to August 10,  August 27 to September 20, October 15 to 30 and November 5 to 9.  The graph shows that Bush's popularity did indeed erode during these four hotspots, dropping from 58% to 50%, while his disapproval rating grew from 32% to 42%.  Considering these together, Bush lost 8 approval points and gains 10 disapproval points, for a total of 18% loss of reputation.

     2.  In the January 10, 2004 Forecast, The Planetary Winds Have Shifted, I stated, This Jupiter retrograde (began January 4) rips the petals of good fortune off Bush's blooming yellow Texas rose.  This Forecast too has been proven true, as the approval/disapproval percentages changed for the worse from early January's 56/39 to the graph's dead heat of 49/48 at the end of March.

Looking Ahead

     As stated in the March 24, 2004 Forecast, The Amoral Trio,  Bush was elected under a powerful Saturn with Rahu planetary cycle.  Now under Saturn with  Jupiter (optimism and expansion), his aspirations have grown, but powerful enemies reveal Bush's lies, and a loss of personal power bars his usual vengeance against them.
     This Saturn with Jupiter planetary cycle is modified by a third level planet, which is Saturn from March 4 until July 28.  Bush's planetary cycles now are therefore Saturn/Jupiter/Saturn.  This additional Saturn restriction inexorably drags down Bush's approval percentage and increases his disapproval percentage.  These planetary cycles, called Dasas, are the underlying karma, like the current of a river upon which Bush travels in his little boat.  
     Transits, which are like weather on this river, and are used together with the Dasas to make predictions. As transit Saturn continues to close in on his Sun in the 12th house of loss, and Mars moves into Bush's 12th house at the end of April, he must suffer greatly in May and June, bringing his ratings to dangerous levels, just like his father nearly a dozen years ago.  
     Two other facets of these planetary dispositions are Bush's increasing poverty of speech, a growing inability to articulate, and obvious physical aging, particularly in his face.  It should also be noted that these planetary karmas are also unfavorable for Bush's cardiac system, although this is not a prediction of fulfilling the twenty year curse upon U S Presidents. 
     This Forecast, then, completes background information on Bush and lays the foundation for analysis of his planetary karmas during next four months.  As promised, chart analysis will also be done for the major players in this historic drama: Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Condoleeza Rice, Tony Blair and John Kerry.